CBCSOnline

The 2010 Philippine National Election did give much wisdom that both national and local candidates should ponder. Analyzing the outcome of the election particularly in the Bangsamoro dominated areas will give us some thought of its effect to the winning or losing of candidates from local to national level. On the other hand, the lessons learned could also be a potential tool of the Bangsamoro in advancing their aspiration for their right to self-determination.

To begin with, an interesting focus is the unpredicted fate of vice presidential candidate Mar Roxas who had been forecasted to win a wide margin against all his opponents nationwide. He had shown consistent advantage in different poll surveys from the start of the campaign period to the near end. On the local contest, the Pinol brothers in the province of North Cotabato were also forecasted to win landslide margins over their political rivals. 

Looking closely at the outcome of the election in vice presidency race, the turnout of votes in the five provinces (Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi) of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) vice presidential candidate Jojo Binay won in four provinces by a high margin except in the province of Tawi-Tawi where Mar Roxas won with a slight margin of 5.6%. In comparison to Jojo Binay who won with an average margin of 26.17% over Roxas in the other four ARMM provinces. The trends in ARMM final turn out of votes ended with Mar Roxas trailed in a distant third place.  

This is in sharp contrast to his expectation said to offset the more than 600,000 advantage of Binay and eventually win in the race once the votes in ARMM are counted. Roxas is true to its expectation if the ARMM votes went in his favor considering that its registered voters are more than 1.6 million.   

In the presidency race, Presidential candidate Joseph Estrada won in around half of the areas in Mindanao, which is also amazing due to the unforgettable devastations in Moro dominated areas in Mindanao due to his “All-Out War” policy in 2000 aside from being criminally convicted of plunder charge. This is understandable in the Settlers’ areas. Nevertheless, in the Moro dominated and ARMM areas Erap Estrada tremendously lost over Noynoy. 

Still best trends that represents Moro vote is in the province of North Cotabato which is outside ARMM, though constitutes only around thirty percent out of its total voters, it is interesting to note how Moros did in their selection of leaders. Let us examine the Moro Barangays in Midsayap, North Cotabato where Erap Estrada posted a winning percentage of 62.97% over his rivals. Nonetheless, the Moro dominated Barangays that equally suffered the consequences of government’s over-emphasis on military action in reacting to Bangsamoro question in Mindanao shows otherwise. In Barangays, Kadingilan, Macasendeg and Nabalawag  Erap Estrada got only an average of 0.87% against Noynoy’s winning percentage of 80.14%. 

It is interesting too to scrutinized, the fate of the Pinol brothers. Everyone knows that the Pinol’s already established powerful political dynasty in the province of North Cotabato who almost if not totally swift out of their positions. Roger Talino, father of the North Cotabato Governor elect Lala Talino Mendoza tried in the previous election in full force to unseat the Pinols and their contenders but failed. Aside from the latter’s claim of massive cheating, we can hardly think of any other reasons for the unprecedented sad event in their political career. 

Recalling back the post election scenario on the focus candidates, presidential bets Erap Estrada and Gibo Teodoro already left a permanent ugly mark in the history of Bangsamoro due to their “2000 All-Out War” and “2008 Military Surgical Operation” that uprooted more than a million” and 703,000 individuals mostly Moro civilians respectively. 

In like manner, vice presidential candidate Mar Roxas with their local allies such as the Pinols are leading figures in opposing and eventually lead to the aborted signing of the much hoped Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain (MOA-AD) ON August 5, 2008. Their being vocal in opposing any steps towards reaching concrete agreement between the GRP-MILF Peace Talks earned them the moniker as “spoilers of peace” and “anti-Moro” leaders. 

Shortly before the Election Day, there were mass mobilizations conducted in some strategic places in Moro dominated provinces issuing “Fatwa” (religious verdict) that it is “haram” (prohibited) for the Muslims to vote for the above candidates on line. In some instances the Moro groups burned epigies and replica of these candidates. Locally, some Moro civil society organization leaders unify their campaign and advocacies against the Pinols.  

The downfall of the anti-Moro candidates for whatever reason, the election trends are sensible lessons for the future candidates to consider. That in winning or losing both national and local elections, the Moro votes if it went solid matters much. More so on the part of the Bangsamoro, the learning would somehow make them realize that their unified votes can make and unmake candidates. And therefore, this can be a useful tool in installing leaderships who have heart in the plight of the Bangsamoro. [The author is peacebuilding and Clustered Coordinator for Southeast-Central Mindano Regions of the Consortium of Bangsamoro Civil Society]